The U.S. Economy: 2009 to Present
An ongoing analysis of U.S. economic and social data points
Inflation & the GDP in the United States
The inflation rate is tracked using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is the cost of a market basket of consumer goods. The most commonly reported inflation rate is the Y/Y rate, where we see had a recent high approaching 9%. The Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate is 2%. In January, 2025 the U.S. Inflation rate grew to 3%, with a month over month inflation rate of 0.47%.
The Producer Price Index, the measure of how prices change for the production of goods and services, has fluctuated since 2009; it goes through series of inflation and deflation. From the PPI inflation of 22.43% in June of 2022, we saw a dramatic month over month decrease in the PPI, tracking similarly to the CPI inflation rate, reaching a deflation rate in March of 2023 of -1.14%.
When examining the relationship between PPI and CPI since 2009, a linear regression model was developed showing a correlative relationship between PPI and CPI.
GDP has continued its’ upward trajectory, with the noticeable dip during the COVID-19 Pandemic, with GDP per Capita approaching $89,000 at the end of Q2 in 2024
Federal expenditures, following a spike and then fall during the COVID-19 Pandemic, have continued steady upward growth, totaling $7 Trillion dollars as of July 2024.
Federal Expenditures & the National Deficit
The U.S. government has seen steady growth of federal expenditures since 2009, and a massive spike to in April 2020 as a result of legislation aimed at combating the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn it caused.
Job Creation & Unemployment
The U.S. Labor Force participation rates remained between 62 and 63% following the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, with steady declines preceding it.
Prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic and following the 2008 Financial Recession, monthly job creation fluctuated around 200,000 new jobs created per the U.S. Federal Reserve. Following the Pandemic, we see a massive amount of new jobs being created as bounce back jobs, and then month over month new job creation resuming, fluctuating around 200,000 per month.
Industrial Production
Following the 2008 Financial Crisis, the U.S. Industrial capacity utilization has increased from 70% and peaking at 80.57% in August of 2018, followed by a dramatic drop to 64.70% during the early months of the COVID-19 Pandemic. It then began climbing again and peaking at 81% between March and September of 2022.
Automobile Prices
Automobile prices have continued to climb from 2009 to present, with used cars outpacing the CPI of new cars. In February, 2022 at the height of the inflation boom following the COVID-19 Pandemic, used cars saw their highest prices, while new cars would continue to climb to their highest point in July of 2023.
Consumer Sentiment
The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) published by the University of Michigan reports the optimism or pessimism of consumers about the economy. A score above 100 indicates consumers are optimistic about the economy.
U.S. Imports & Exports
The Import and Export indices published by the U.S. Federal Reserve tracks the value and change of value of imports and exports in the United States.
Delinquencies in the United States
This chart tracks the delinquency rate of three classes of credit in the United States: mortgages, credit cards, and consumer loans. Deliquesces has consistently fallen since the 2008 Financial Crisis, with a small tick up of mortgage deliquesces in July of 2020. Following record high inflation seen in 2022, deliquesces have began increasing, but still remaining dramatically lower than the highs seen Between 2008 and 2010.
During the 2008 Financial Crisis, household debt service peaked at almost 16% of disposable income. Following the crisis, the percentage steadily dropped and began leveling out between 11% and 12% from July 2012 thru to the present (aside from a dip during the COVID-19 pandemic).
U.S. Staple Consumer Items
Commodities Prices
Similarly the CPI and Import/Exports, the Federal Research also tracks the costs of stable consumer goods in the United States. I have selected 5 of the most commonly discussed consumer staples and their inflation rate. In the first month of Trump’s administration, egg prices increased 96%, attributed to the ongoing bird flu crisis.
National U.S. Housing Market & Affordability
The U.S. Housing Index tracks the national cost of homes in the United States. The index can then be used to compare home values over time and their inflation over time. During the COVID-19 pandemic era, we see a spike from 4% to nearly 20% inflation, before starting a decline in May, 2022.
U.S. Crime Rate
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reports the crime rate in the United States in their Uniform Crime Reports (UCRs), where the number represents the number of crimes per 100,000 people. As of this writing, the 2024 UCR is not available.
We can see in the data crime has consistently fallen in the United States with seasonal spikes in the winter months every year. During the Biden Administration, the national crime rate fluctuated between 150 and 200 crimes per 100,000 people